Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta

Published on June 29, 2016 at the Russian International Affairs Council, Moscow and on the Council on Foreign Relations Member Wall

​Homeland Security was right and so were we.  On June 16 in our blog on Ramadan,  we warned after Orlando that Ramadan was not yet over and that other attacks could be expected.  Remember we are still in the month of Ramadan when the Islamists think that attacks on Christians, Jews and Gays will be more valuable and martyrdom better rewarded in Heaven.  The end of Ramadan is also celebrated by a religious holiday  for Muslims the world over, Eid-Al Fitr [festival of the breaking of  fasting].  Are more massacres like Orlando and, Istanbul and other terrorist attacks in Tel Aviv, France and Mogadishu coming before the July 5th end of Ramadan? In this Ramadan, as in the previous one in 2015 there were jihadist attacks on three continents..  

The latest attack in Istanbul involved three suicide bombers.  The toll at this writing is 44 dead and over a hundred and twenty wounded.  The mode of attack suggests ISIS.  The three  bombers arrived from Rakka, the capitol of ISIS in Syria.

However, all three of them were from Russia, one a Chechen from Dagestan in the north Caucasus, like the brothers Tsarnaev who initiated the Boston Marathon bombing.  Dagestan is a neighboring republic to Chechnya undergoing intense struggle with Russia.  The other two were a novelty.  They were from two former, Soviet republics, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, in central Asia.  Today they are independent Muslim countries. 

The origins of all three suggest calls for closer cooperation with Russian intelligence in the struggle against the joint enemy, jihadist terrorism. We called for this cooperation in 2014 in our article in The National Interest, "Can Russia and America Work Together to Crush the Islamic State?",

The killers were extremely well organized and prepared a terrorist action focusing on an airport as ISIS did several weeks ago in Brussels.  Pressured by us in Syria and Iraq, they signaled they would bring their struggle to the west and to our Muslim allies like Turkey.  By attacking airports with increasing sophistication, as well as tourist facilities as in Morroco and Somalia, they seek to strangle tourism, a  main source of income for these countries.

The bombing is likely also a response to Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan agreeing three days ago to normalizing relations with Israel.  These had frayed after a 2010 Israeli raid on a Turkish flotilla that had breached its security.

 On June 25th an attack by the Al Shabaab terrorists claimed 14 lives at a hotel in Mogadishu, the capitol of Somalia. Unfortunately, there are so many attacks happening now our presidential candidates are having difficulty focusing on their campaigns.  As Trump was preparing his speech on Hillary’s economic policies, the terrorists in Istanbul were readying their deadly attack.  

Our CIA Director, Brennan, has indicated he agreed with our suggestion that the end of Ramadan my bring another ISIS attack.  Security at both U.S. and European airports has been beefed up.


                                SECURITY WARNS OF ANOTHER ATTACK!

                                                     Jiri and Leni Friedman Valenta

                                                                      Published on June 16, 2016

                                                       "Unafraid, Bi-Partisan, Uphold U.S. and Freedom"

There are a number of lessons we have already learned from the horrific, June 12, Ramadan Orlando massacre. The main one is that the enemy is not just overseas and trying to enter our country. He’s already here. The Trump wall must be built, but it’s not enough. As the most recent attacks in San Bernardino and Orlando demonstrate, some young American-born Muslims, despite their upbringing and environment in America, embrace the Sharia law values of their ancestors and will commit violent crimes in the name of jihad.  

Importance of Ramadan:  Another lesson comes with a closer look at the meaning of Ramadan, which occurs on the 9th month of the Islamic lunar calendar. To some Muslims Ramadan is no longer just the month of fasting and family closeness. To the leaders of ISIS, the Sunni terrorist organization created in 2014 on the first day of Ramadan in 1435 of the Islamic calendar, Ramadan has returned to its medieval meaning -- “a month of calamity everywhere for non-believers.” 

The goal of ISIS is a caliphate dominating the entire world under the aegis of draconian Sharia law. Particular targets are Jews, Christians and gays. Women under Sharia are housebound breeders for the male, and female kafirs [infidels] are to be enslaved.

In 2015, Ramadan fell on June 17 to July 17. In tri-continental attacks earlier analyzed by these writers, thirty-nine western European sunbathers on a hotel beach in Tunisia were blown away by a 23-year-old jihadist trained in Libya. On the same day, 27 died at a Kuwait -Shiite mosque (227 injured), and a U.S. factory owner was beheaded in France.

This year, the Ramadan deadly harvest on three continents thus far has been four killings in a Tel Aviv cafe (June 8th), the Orlando “deadliest shooting in U.S. history” on the 12th, and an echo one day later again in much victimized France. A police captain and his companion were killed.

Radical, Islamist ideology, comparable in horror to Hitler’s Mein Kompf, is not what the majority of the  3.3 million American Muslims practice.  They adhere to the many peaceful tenets in Islam. Indeed, most Muslims worldwide reject extremism and the crueler punishments of Sharia.

According to the Pew Research Foundation, America’s Muslims (less than 1% of the population) come from 77 different countries and this very melting pot has allowed them to compromise and integrate successfully. Thus, most of our Muslims are loyal Americans happy to live under U.S. law, democracy and a peaceful interpretation of Islam.

Enter the Orlando Killer: Unfortunately, a small percentage of American born Muslims can become self-radicalized at any time in their lifetime and we have seen what one radical with a gun can do. Enter the jihadist in Orlando. Numerous interviews reveal the inner struggle of this man between the values of American and Sharia Law.  It appears he was actually tempted to observe if not participate in the activities of the Pulse gay bar over a period of few years.  He seemed comfortable in that environment and was not just scouting it for a few years to commit jihad.

Let us not be confused, however, by the testimonies of his first wife of four months that he was just violent and irrational. The phone calls he made during the killings, not just to 911, but his writings in Facebook suggest a calm and calculating man. His motivation was revenge -- for America’s killing of ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq.. Scheduling his act for Ramadan, he pledged allegiance to ISIS. His re-emerging Sharia values appear to have merged with his inner need for recognition and publicity.

Above all, the shooter was the son of an Afghan Taliban father. He must have absorbed the stories of the heroic Pushtuns fighting the Western infidels --British, Americans and Russians. We note here that Muslims or their American born children descended from those who come from Sharia law countries, tend to be resistant to integration and the acceptance of American values. They are more susceptible to embracing Sharia at one point in their lives and more likely to commit a violent act than other Muslim Americans

Did the FBI miss a ticking Islamic Bomb? Could we have prevented the Orlando massacre? Brilliant analyst, Andreas Tantaros has pointed out that, “He [the Orlando jihadist] was under surveillance and interviewed by the FBI three times. That’s not a needle [in a haystack], that’s a ticking Islamist time bomb.” She’s right.  Consider FBI Director James Comey’s explanation that the jihadist was discounted as a threat because he was confusing the names of the Islamist organizations and supporting both Shiites and Sunnis. That’s an American way of looking at it. To Jihadists, all these terrorist organizations serve the purpose of fighting for the global caliphate. Thus the shooter should have stayed on the FBI radar.

Considering even the small number of radicals in this country, we must also have surveillance of the mosques and more cooperation from Imams. Just ask former Homeland Security agent Philip Haney, author of See Something, Say Nothing. In Political Insider, Haney claims that a case he had developed might have prevented the 2015 San Bernardino massacre had it not been shut down and scrubbed by Hillary’s State Department over concerns about alienating Muslims.

Moreover, there was also a link in that case to the mosque where the Orlando killer worshipped, the Islamic Center of Fort Pierce, Florida. Haney found that the mosque is part of a network in the United States linked with the Institute of Islamic Education, which was a major component of the case he was following.  But the State Department and Homeland Security quashed the case in June 2012 and deleted the kind of records that to Haney, “ comprise the 'dots' that counter-terrorism analysts connect to form cases that are used to identify

For all these reasons, we cannot dismiss Donald Trump’s concerns over a possible Trojan horse of immigration, intended or not, nor his fury at Hillary’s desire to take in 65,000 Syrians, with the president asking for another 10,000.   Whereas the president and Hillary seem anxious to appease the Muslim population, Trump is clearly focusing on safety. As he sees it, taking in a large numbers of immigrants from countries with Sharia culture would in all likelihood strengthen the ranks of American-born, potential jihadists and overwhelm our already overtaxed homeland security  and FBI resources. Thus, to him, in the short run it makes absolute sense to severely limit Muslim immigration from countries that practice Sharia law and are involved in armed struggle against NATO forces.

By the same token, Trump’s excessive proposal to temporarily ban Muslim immigration must of course must be revised to exclude secular Muslim countries like Albania and Azerbaijan and those that do not persecute citizens for not following Sharia law, including Morocco, Tunisia, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The Experience of Europe: Lessons For Us:  Europe also provides a stunning example of the whirlwind that western hospitality has reaped.  The problem is that the immigrants from Sharia law countries are not willing to integrate and when in Rome will not do what the Romans do. Not surprisingly, walls are going up and vast numbers of immigrants, particularly those involved in crimes, are being expelled.

Bernie Sanders also completely misses what is happening in two of his favorite Scandinavian countries, Norway and Sweden. In both counties, immigration from Sharia law countries has led to the rise of ultra-religious Taliban types who feel it is their duty to patrol the streets and punish those not in compliance with Sharia law.  Sweden is planning to expel 80,000 Muslim immigrants and Finland 20,000.

Walls are going up everywhere. Whole new laws are being written to deal with the expulsion of immigrants who do not integrate. "The story is similar throughout Europe where beleaguered governments are struggling with huge migrant problems and having to write new laws to control newcomers  who will not integrate in addition to those Muslim citizens e.g. in Belgium and France, who have engaged in jihad.  

Be aware also that those expelled from these countries for criminal behavior might well try to come here. This might explain why for the last several months a large number of Afghan and Albanian migrants, together with Central Americans (but not Mexicans) have tried to penetrate our southern borders. 

We need to ask ourselves how would we manage those who will not integrate? How will 65,000 Syrian immigrants be fed, housed and kept under surveillance and added to the American-born Muslims already on the FBI radar. With growing Muslim immigration anticipated by Hillary,  Comey’s life may well become impossible. Also recall a nineteen trillion-dollar debt hanging over our heads and counting.

We ask these questions because noble sentiments and outreach to the unfortunate are part of what makes us Americans. But neither can we risk our American way of life and our very survival. The question is how to balance our democratic ideals while also avoiding threats to our national security.

Meanwhile, let all of us stay on guard. There is chatter about a major attack yet to come. Homeland Security is taking it seriously and has issued new warnings. Remember Ramadan is not over!